Tech
-3.02%
Live market pulse from the rithm engine. Updated 2026-10-19 05:30 ET.
Risk-off over the last 72h — tech-led weakness (Nasdaq 100 lagging the Dow): S&P -1.9%, Nasdaq 100 -4.5%, Dow +0.6%; semis crushed (-8.2%).
| ● | Second day of ROTATION, not direction - the index is flat while the cross-section is wide open | Intraday as of ~10:30 ET: SPY -0.05% at 771.43, QQQ -0.89% at 721.50, DIA +0.40% at 523.25, IWM -0.01% at 275.06. The headline index says nothing happened; the cross-section says otherwise. XLB +1.65%, KRE +1.72%, XLF +1.06%, XLE +0.92% against SMH -1.42% - a better than 3pp spread between the best and worst sleeves on a day the S&P is unchanged to four decimal places. This extends Thursday's move, when the Dow closed +1.08% and the Nasdaq +0.08%. Read it as money moving ACROSS the tape rather than off it: VIX -2.49% to 16.04 is not a stress print. Caveat for anyone tempted to trade the spread: wide single-day dispersion is a DESCRIPTION here, not a signal - dispersion was tested as a factor and failed the shift null (see factor lab), so this paragraph is tape-reading, not an edge claim. |
| ● | Hot September PPI got DISCOUNTED, because 80% of it was energy and crude is now falling | Thursday's PPI was the hottest print in years - +1.3% m/m (biggest since March 2022) and +6.3% y/y (biggest since December 2022) against +0.5%/+5.3% consensus, with core +0.7% m/m lifting the annual core to 5.0%, the highest since January 2023. The reaction is the opposite of Wednesday's CPI reaction, and the composition is why: gasoline +20.3% was about half the headline, and energy accounted for roughly 80% of the 2.9% leap in goods prices. The market is treating it as an energy pass-through that is already reversing - WTI is -2.29% intraday to 95.31, well off the ~$106 Brent prints, and the 10-year has retreated to roughly 5.09% from its multi-year highs with TLT +0.16%. TESTABLE, NOT YET TRUE: if this is really the energy story, the front-end hike odds that the 10/14 note flagged at ~54% for Oct 27-28 should fade as crude falls. Do not write that down as established - a composition argument is a hypothesis about what the Fed will weigh, and one session of falling yields is not confirmation. |
| ● | Gold reversed UP and yields fell - the real-rate shock from Wednesday is unwinding | GLD +0.47% intraday to 384.53, recovering the -1.9% it lost on 10/14. That matters because the 10/14 note read gold falling alongside stocks and bonds as a real-rate shock plus de-risking rather than an inflation bid. Gold rising while the 10-year falls to ~5.09% is the same mechanism running backwards, which CORROBORATES the real-rate read over the inflation-hedge read: both legs now point the same way. Still a two-session observation on one asset, so it is evidence about the 10/14 interpretation, not a standing claim about gold. |
| ● | Semi weakness is MEMORY and merchant silicon - NVDA is flat, so this is not the AI leader | Intraday as of ~10:30 ET: MU -3.74% at 896.46, AMD -3.22% at 544.13, AVGO -1.89% at 337.84, SMH -1.42% - but NVDA is +0.01% at 217.25, essentially unchanged. A 'semis are selling off' headline that lumps NVDA in is simply wrong today, and the distinction is the whole content of the move: the names being sold are the ones whose revenue depends on somebody else's capex budget clearing, while the name selling the shovels is bid. Note this also undercuts the reflex that AI complex moves are led by the obvious bellwether - our own lead-lag work found the complex moves TOGETHER on big days (+4.7% same day, ~0 next) rather than in sequence, so do not read NVDA-flat as a leading indicator of where MU goes tomorrow. |
| ● | Optics down a THIRD straight session, COHR worst - the AI-financing read is holding up out of sample | COHR -5.40% at 237.07, AAOI -4.61% at 79.87, CIEN -3.75% at 343.15, LITE -3.55% at 838.70, CRDO -2.53% at 173.99 - all intraday ~10:30 ET, and all worse than SMH -1.42%. This is the same group moving together again, with COHR the worst name, which is what the measured structure predicts: the complex behaves as approximately ONE position (LITE-COHR correlation 0.79) and COHR is the hub. The 10/14 note argued the market is repricing whether the AI BACKLOG GETS FINANCED rather than the backlog itself; a third consecutive day of common-factor underperformance, on a day when NVDA is flat and the broad tape is unchanged, is genuine out-of-sample support for that framing rather than for a duration or crowding explanation. The honest limit: this corroborates the GROUPING and the direction, and says nothing about tradability - as a basket it is one bet, so sizing it as five names would be a leverage error. |
| ● | Regional bank earnings carried financials - but MTB fell, so 'the banks beat' is too coarse | All three of Friday's regional reporters printed, and the sleeve led the tape: KRE +1.72%, XLF +1.06%, with TFC +2.40% at 47.69, RF +2.25% at 27.93, BAC +1.38% and GS +1.08% - intraday ~10:30 ET. Regions was the clean beat: adjusted EPS 0.73 against 0.66 consensus, net income 611mm and 0.71 reported against 539mm/0.62 a year ago, revenue +3% to 1.97bn on net interest income +3.3%. But M&T is -0.70% at 217.11 - DOWN, against a sleeve up 1.7%, and it traded as low as 214.20 after opening at 221.49. So the summary is not 'regional banks beat', it is 'two of three were taken well'. This also partly repairs the 10/14 observation that banks had stopped treating a yield rise as good news: here they are bid on falling yields plus NII beats, which is a credit-and-margin bid rather than a rates trade. |
| ● | Energy equities ROSE while crude fell 2% - flag the sign mismatch, do not narrate it away | XLE +0.92% intraday while WTI is -2.29% to 95.31. The intuitive caption - 'energy strength on oil' - is backwards today, and worth stating plainly because that mismatch is exactly the kind of thing a drivers page invents a story for. Two readings are live and this note does NOT pick between them: XLE is a cyclical sleeve catching the same rotation bid as XLB and XLF, or it is a duration-ish bid on falling yields. Either way, anyone reading XLE up as a bullish crude signal has the sign of the underlying wrong. Resolve it with the sector page's beta-to-crude rather than from this one session. |
| ● | Index moves | S&P 500 -1.9%, Nasdaq 100 -4.5%, Dow +0.6%, Russell 2000 -2.3%, Semis -8.2%, VIX +1.9pt. |
| ● | Sector rotation | Leaders: Health Care +4.2%, Staples +4.1%. Laggards: Tech -6.5%, Comm Svcs -1.8%. |
| ● | Biggest movers (72h) | Up: LLY +7.8%, UNH +6.3%, SBUX +6.0%, RTX +6.0% · Down: AMD -12.7%, ORCL -10.4%, AVGO -8.0%, MU -7.8% |
| ● | News flow (72h) | Heaviest categories: earnings (48), guidance_cut (17), mna (13) · Breaking on NVDA. |
Risk-off at the last close (Fri 10/16) — tech-led weakness (Nasdaq 100 lagging the Dow): S&P -1.1%, Nasdaq 100 -2.5%, Dow -0.4%; semis crushed (-3.4%).
| ● | Index moves | S&P 500 -1.1%, Nasdaq 100 -2.5%, Dow -0.4%, Russell 2000 -1.7%, Semis -3.4%, VIX -1.2pt. |
| ● | Sector rotation | Leaders: Energy +2.5%, Utilities +1.3%. Laggards: Tech -3.0%, Comm Svcs -1.9%. |
| ● | Biggest movers (Fri 10/16) | Up: EOG +4.2%, RTX +3.7%, COP +3.4%, PM +2.6% · Down: AMD -6.0%, MU -5.6%, ORCL -4.6%, AVGO -4.5% |
| ● | News flow (Fri 10/16) | Heaviest categories: general (43), earnings (19), mna (8). |
Next 72h: 192 earnings (biggest: NBIS, VICR, MXL, PEGA); 13 macro prints (key: Building Permits Prel, Housing Starts).
| ● | Macro calendar | Tomorrow: Building Permits Prel ★ · Tomorrow: Housing Starts ★. |
| ● | Earnings on deck | Thu BMO: NBIS (±48%) · Tomorrow BMO: VICR (±47%) · Thu AMC: MXL (±34%) · Tomorrow AMC: PEGA (±29%) · Thu AMC: RNG (±28%) · Thu BMO: TTMI (±27%) · Thu AMC: BE (±24%) · Thu AMC: RHI (±24%). |
| ● | Themes to watch | Rate-sensitive tape — key prints: Atlanta Fed GDPNow · Big-tech earnings in the window: TSLA, META, NFLX. |
| CLF | 06:00 pre-market | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc | Non-Energy Minerals | $12.12 -0.2% | EPS $0.21 | Rev $5.69B | $6.9B | ±18.4% |
| FITB | 06:30 pre-market | Fifth Third Bancorp | Finance | $50.37 +0.0% | EPS $0.83 | Rev $3.34B | $45.7B | ±7.5% |
| VFS | 08:00 pre-market | VinFast Auto Ltd. | Consumer Durables | $3.12 -2.8% | EPS $-0.31 | Rev $1.28B | $7.3B | ±11.9% |
| IRDM | 08:00 pre-market | Iridium Communications Inc. | Communications | $43.76 -2.7% | EPS $0.34 | Rev $236M | $4.6B | ±10.2% |
| BANF | 08:00 pre-market | BancFirst Corporation | Finance | $109.03 +0.8% | EPS $1.94 | Rev $188M | $3.7B | ±7.5% |
| STLD | 16:00 post-market | Steel Dynamics, Inc. | Non-Energy Minerals | $240.54 -0.1% | EPS $5.48 | Rev $6.43B | $34.5B | ±11.8% |
| WAL | 16:00 post-market | Western Alliance Bancorp | Finance | $74.51 +0.2% | EPS $2.42 | Rev $988M | $8.1B | ±10.2% |
| SFBS | 16:00 post-market | ServisFirst Bancshares Inc | Finance | $39.36 -0.5% | EPS $0.83 | Rev $173M | $4.3B | ±8.2% |
| BOKF | 16:00 post-market | BOK Financial Corporation | Finance | $124.83 -0.1% | EPS $2.52 | Rev $571M | $7.6B | ±8.2% |
| ZION | 16:00 post-market | Zions Bancorporation NA | Finance | $63.37 +0.6% | EPS $1.66 | Rev $890M | $9.2B | ±8.1% |
| WTFC | 16:00 post-market | Wintrust Financial Corporation | Finance | $144.08 +0.4% | EPS $3.31 | Rev $755M | $9.7B | ±7.8% |
| WRB | 16:00 post-market | W. R. Berkley Corporation | Finance | $75.42 +2.0% | EPS $1.15 | Rev $3.82B | $28.0B | ±7.4% |
| CCK | 16:00 post-market | Crown Holdings, Inc. | Process Industries | $114.15 +0.4% | EPS $2.26 | Rev $3.46B | $12.4B | ±6.8% |
| FNB | 16:00 post-market | F.N.B. Corporation | Finance | $17.23 +0.4% | EPS $0.43 | Rev $476M | $6.1B | ±6.4% |
| +1 more not shown | ||||||||
| SYF | 06:00 pre-market | Synchrony Financial | Finance | $73.68 -0.5% | EPS $2.42 | Rev $3.81B | $24.0B | ±9.4% |
| EFX | 06:30 pre-market | Equifax Inc. | Commercial Services | $161.25 0.0% | EPS $2.20 | Rev $1.69B | $18.9B | ±9.6% |
| GM | 06:30 pre-market | General Motors Company | Consumer Durables | $83.96 +0.4% | EPS $3.70 | Rev $48.83B | $73.7B | ±8.7% |
| MMM | 06:30 pre-market | 3M Company | Producer Manufacturing | $164.75 -0.4% | EPS $2.39 | Rev $6.61B | $85.0B | ±8.4% |
| KEY | 06:30 pre-market | KeyCorp | Finance | $19.99 +0.3% | EPS $0.46 | Rev $2.05B | $21.3B | ±8.0% |
| HAS | 06:30 pre-market | Hasbro, Inc. | Consumer Durables | $98.76 +0.4% | EPS $1.86 | Rev $1.48B | $13.9B | ±7.9% |
| HAL | 06:45 pre-market | Halliburton Company | Industrial Services | $33.50 +1.9% | EPS $0.58 | Rev $5.58B | $27.9B | ±7.5% |
| MSCI | 06:45 pre-market | MSCI Inc. Class A | Commercial Services | $569.08 -1.0% | EPS $5.02 | Rev $887M | $41.4B | ±6.8% |
| GPC | 06:55 pre-market | Genuine Parts Company | Distribution Services | $133.96 +0.3% | EPS $2.04 | Rev $6.49B | $18.5B | ±4.9% |
| VICR | 07:00 pre-market | Vicor Corporation | Electronic Technology | $191.50 -12.9% | EPS $1.32 | Rev $187M | $8.8B | ±46.9% |
| ALLY | 07:30 pre-market | Ally Financial Inc | Finance | $37.68 -0.1% | EPS $1.33 | Rev $2.30B | $11.5B | ±6.3% |
| OMC | 08:00 pre-market | Omnicom Group Inc | Commercial Services | $80.56 -0.2% | EPS $2.67 | Rev $6.21B | $22.1B | ±9.5% |
| CBSH | 08:00 pre-market | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | Finance | $55.69 +0.2% | EPS $1.07 | Rev $497M | $8.0B | ±6.9% |
| ISRG | 08:00 pre-market | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | Health Technology | $426.70 -0.3% | EPS $2.65 | Rev $2.91B | $150.7B | ±6.8% |
| +24 more not shown | ||||||||
| MHO | 03:30 pre-market | M/I Homes, Inc. | Consumer Durables | $124.48 -1.2% | EPS $3.25 | Rev $1.11B | $3.1B | ±11.4% |
| LAD | 05:30 pre-market | Lithia Motors, Inc. | Retail Trade | $295.14 -0.1% | EPS $9.70 | Rev $9.75B | $6.5B | ±14.4% |
| TMO | 06:00 pre-market | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | Health Technology | $690.00 -0.9% | EPS $6.40 | Rev $11.95B | $255.1B | ±7.1% |
| ELV | 06:00 pre-market | Elevance Health, Inc. | Health Services | $428.26 0.0% | EPS $4.70 | Rev $49.29B | $92.9B | ±5.3% |
| DHR | 06:00 pre-market | Danaher Corporation | Health Technology | $229.04 -1.1% | EPS $1.92 | Rev $6.56B | $161.0B | ±4.8% |
| WAB | 06:30 pre-market | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | Producer Manufacturing | $286.82 -0.3% | EPS $2.73 | Rev $3.20B | $48.4B | ±7.1% |
| TDY | 06:55 pre-market | Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | Electronic Technology | $618.60 -0.2% | EPS $6.17 | Rev $1.65B | $28.7B | ±6.1% |
| SF | 07:00 pre-market | Stifel Financial Corp | Finance | $67.56 -1.6% | EPS $1.44 | Rev $1.45B | $10.2B | ±10.8% |
| ONB | 07:00 pre-market | Old National Bancorp | Finance | $25.01 +0.0% | EPS $0.66 | Rev $732M | $9.6B | ±8.8% |
| MCO | 07:00 pre-market | Moody's Corporation | Commercial Services | $485.07 +0.3% | EPS $4.25 | Rev $2.08B | $84.0B | ±7.4% |
| NEE | 07:30 pre-market | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Utilities | $79.80 +1.1% | EPS $1.18 | Rev $8.73B | $166.5B | ±5.5% |
| ABT | 07:30 pre-market | Abbott Laboratories | Health Technology | $104.89 +0.2% | EPS $1.42 | Rev $12.99B | $181.5B | ±5.0% |
| NEE/PT | 07:30 pre-market | NextEra Energy, Inc. Corpoarate Unit Const of 1 Deb 11.29 + 1 PC 11.27 | Utilities | $47.12 +0.8% | EPS $1.18 | Rev $8.73B | $166.5B | ±4.0% |
| NEE/PV | 07:30 pre-market | NextEra Energy, Inc. Corporate Units 2026-15.02.2029 | Utilities | $44.52 +0.7% | EPS $1.18 | Rev $8.73B | $166.5B | ±3.2% |
| +45 more not shown | ||||||||
| NOK | 01:00 pre-market | Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR | Electronic Technology | $9.14 -4.5% | EPS $0.07 | Rev $5.73B | $53.6B | ±16.1% |
| BCS | 02:00 pre-market | Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR | Finance | $22.79 -0.1% | EPS $0.64 | Rev $10.09B | $76.9B | ±7.7% |
| SPOT | 06:00 pre-market | Spotify Technology SA | Technology Services | $530.46 -0.5% | EPS $3.18 | Rev $5.64B | $109.2B | ±9.0% |
| PCG | 06:00 pre-market | PG&E Corporation | Utilities | $13.09 +1.0% | EPS $0.42 | Rev $6.82B | $28.8B | ±7.9% |
| DOW | 06:00 pre-market | Dow, Inc. | Process Industries | $29.93 +0.9% | EPS $0.61 | Rev $11.21B | $21.6B | ±5.1% |
| HON | 06:00 pre-market | Honeywell International Inc. | Producer Manufacturing | $211.41 +0.4% | EPS $2.17 | Rev $5.01B | $67.0B | ±4.4% |
| LAZ | 06:30 pre-market | Lazard Inc | Finance | $36.09 -0.2% | EPS $0.42 | Rev $844M | $3.5B | ±11.2% |
| VLO | 06:30 pre-market | Valero Energy Corporation | Energy Minerals | $444.71 +0.1% | EPS $21.07 | Rev $43.36B | $128.0B | ±8.9% |
| PHM | 06:30 pre-market | PulteGroup, Inc. | Consumer Durables | $113.55 +0.5% | EPS $2.65 | Rev $4.15B | $21.3B | ±8.2% |
| MSM | 06:30 pre-market | MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A | Distribution Services | $130.38 -0.2% | EPS $1.41 | Rev $1.07B | $7.3B | ±7.5% |
| CURB | 06:30 pre-market | Curbline Properties Corp. | Finance | $26.52 -0.2% | EPS $0.07 | Rev $67M | $3.1B | ±6.6% |
| SNA | 06:30 pre-market | Snap-on Incorporated | Consumer Durables | $367.25 +0.4% | EPS $4.93 | Rev $1.24B | $19.0B | ±4.9% |
| CBRE | 06:55 pre-market | CBRE Group, Inc. Class A | Finance | $133.08 -1.8% | EPS $1.97 | Rev $11.79B | $38.5B | ±12.4% |
| ROP | 06:55 pre-market | Roper Technologies, Inc. | Technology Services | $382.71 +0.1% | EPS $5.79 | Rev $2.17B | $37.9B | ±10.0% |
| +66 more not shown | ||||||||
| E | 01:30 pre-market | Eni S.p.A. Sponsored ADR | Energy Minerals | $59.10 +2.9% | EPS $1.87 | Rev $25.89B | $85.3B | ±9.1% |
| FLG/PU | 06:00 pre-market | Flagstar Bank, National Association 6 % Bifurcated Option Note Unit Secs Cons of 1 6% Trust Pfd Sec 1.11.51 + 1 Wt 7.5.51 | Finance | $35.48 -3.1% | EPS $0.07 | Rev $545M | $4.6B | ±23.9% |
| FLG | 06:00 pre-market | Flagstar Bank, National Association | Finance | $11.08 -1.5% | EPS $0.07 | Rev $545M | $4.6B | ±13.4% |
| ALV | 06:00 pre-market | Autoliv Inc. | Producer Manufacturing | $115.99 +0.0% | EPS $2.26 | Rev $2.73B | $8.5B | ±8.5% |
| BAH | 06:45 pre-market | Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation Class A | Commercial Services | $74.26 -0.3% | EPS $1.48 | Rev $2.81B | $8.9B | ±10.5% |
| SLB | 07:00 pre-market | SLB Limited | Industrial Services | $49.50 +2.3% | EPS $0.62 | Rev $9.27B | $73.5B | ±8.9% |
| AXP | 07:00 pre-market | American Express Company | Finance | $313.59 -0.1% | EPS $4.58 | Rev $20.12B | $211.8B | ±7.4% |
| WT | 08:00 pre-market | WisdomTree, Inc. | Finance | $21.39 -1.0% | EPS $0.30 | Rev $181M | $3.2B | ±13.6% |
| INFY | 08:00 pre-market | Infosys Limited Sponsored ADR | Technology Services | $12.24 +0.9% | EPS $0.20 | Rev $5.12B | $49.6B | ±11.4% |
| NVT | 08:00 pre-market | nVent Electric plc | Electronic Technology | $142.03 -2.5% | EPS $1.39 | Rev $1.43B | $23.0B | ±10.9% |
| XOM | 08:00 pre-market | Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | Energy Minerals | $178.98 +2.5% | EPS $4.04 | Rev $104.04B | $736.0B | ±7.9% |
| GNTX | 08:00 pre-market | Gentex Corporation | Producer Manufacturing | $21.01 -0.5% | EPS $0.50 | Rev $670M | $4.4B | ±7.3% |
| FHB | 08:00 pre-market | First Hawaiian, Inc. | Finance | $24.95 +0.0% | EPS $0.59 | Rev $229M | $3.0B | ±7.2% |
| DVA | 08:00 pre-market | DaVita Inc. | Health Services | $187.31 -1.0% | EPS $3.57 | Rev $3.52B | $12.0B | ±5.6% |
| +5 more not shown | ||||||||
Pushed from the local rithm engine · 2026-10-19 05:30 ET · refreshes hourly during market hours · Not financial advice.